Baden-Württemberg is changing: the population will age significantly by 2040!

Baden-Württemberg is changing: the population will age significantly by 2040!

Baden-Württemberg is facing profound demographic changes that will be noticeable by 2040. According to the State Statistical Office, these developments are supported by the analysis of demographic trends in recent years. However, unforeseeable events, such as the corona pandemic and the war in Ukraine, were not included in the calculations. The statisticians use various scenarios to derive future life expectancy, birth rates and immigration. In the middle scenario, a long-term birth rate of 1.44 children per woman is forecast, although the figures for 2024 are around 1.39.

Another important aspect of these calculations is increasing life expectancy. By 2040, this will increase to 83 years for men and 86 years for women. In addition, an average annual net influx of 55,000 people is expected, which shows a comparison to the current year, in which this figure is 37,700 people. When you look at the age pyramid, it becomes clear: the population in Baden-Württemberg will age significantly by 2040, with far-reaching social consequences.

Aging of the population

The increase in the older population is particularly noticeable. According to the calculations, the number of people aged 75 and over will increase by around a third nationwide. In the Schwäbisch Hall district, an increase from 18,000 to 29,000 people, i.e. by around 60%, is expected. And it is even predicted that the number of seniors in Bad Friedrichshall could increase by more than 80%. However, there could be a decline in some communities on Lake Constance, which underlines the importance of regional considerations. This demographic imbalance is a challenge for many municipalities.

The data obtained is also of great benefit to municipalities. They help to better assess future needs, such as school planning or the expected demand in geriatric care. Larger cities like Stuttgart work with their own forecasts that take local factors into account. Even if the aging rate in Baden-Württemberg is classified as moderate compared to other federal states, the challenges for smaller cities and rural areas are significant.

Decline in the number of children

A worrying trend is the decline in the number of children under six, which is expected to fall from 655,000 to 597,000 - a fall of 9%. An even greater decline is expected, particularly in rural areas. While the number of 6- to 17-year-olds remains stable overall, a decline in the number of school children of 11% is forecast in large cities such as Stuttgart. The birth rate also varies considerably between urban and rural areas, with the lowest values, for example, in Heidelberg (0.99) compared to Tuttlingen (1.72).

In summary, it is clear that the population forecasts for Baden-Württemberg do not only represent statistical values, but also have real effects on the social structure, infrastructure and economic development of the region. The results are intended to serve as a basis for future planning by municipalities and politicians and are essential in order to meet the changing needs of the population. The article by SWR offers comprehensive insights into the demographic development in the country.