Tusk fights for trust: is his coalition over?

Tusk fights for trust: is his coalition over?

What is currently happening in Poland is having a major impact on the country's political landscape. After the defeat of Rafal Trzaskowski, a close confidant of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in the presidential election on June 1st, Tusk is forced to ask a vote of confidence in parliament. The right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki won the election with almost 51 percent of the vote, making him a serious threat to Tusk's government that could make the legislature unstable. Loud publishing house-jaumann.de Tusk is planning a cabinet reshuffle in July and sees the next two and a half years as a challenge with “hard, serious work”.

In his government statement, Tusk emphasized the need for unity within his pro-European center-left alliance to push forward the promised reforms. However, he also faces strong opposition from Nawrocki, who has announced that Tusk will face "strong opposition from the presidential palace" once he takes office on August 6. Nawrocki, who supports the right-wing populist PiS, could block key government projects and is perceived as a serious opponent. This is also reflected in the statements of the new president, who describes Tusk as “the worst head of government Poland has had since 1989” and calls for a change in the head of government if the coalition wants to remain in place.

The question of trust and its meaning

It will be decided on Wednesday whether Tusk can regain parliament's confidence. For the vote of confidence he needs 231 votes from the 460 members in the Sejm. His coalition has 242 seats and is therefore formally in a position to win the vote. Nevertheless, there are shaky candidates in the conservative PSL who could consider working with the PiS, such as tagesschau.de reported. However, the leader of the Left, Włodziemierz Czarzasty, has already signaled support and highlighted the successful adoption of the 138 laws, even if the communication errors were criticized externally.

A dispute over direction between the government and the new president is already being predicted. The last few weeks have shown how difficult it could be for Tusk to hold the coalition together. Clear direction will be crucial to actually delivering the change that was promised. Otherwise, Tusk will find it difficult to deal with the PiS, which has the opportunity to put obstacles in the way of his government at various levels.

Outlook for the next steps

The political developments in Poland are exciting to watch. Tusk has announced that he will make structural changes to his cabinet and introduce a government spokesman. A focus of his work will be the reversal of the damage to the rule of law that was caused by the PiS's judicial reform between 2015 and 2023. It remains to be seen whether the coalition will achieve the necessary cohesion to implement these ambitious plans. Tusk has big plans, but it will be a challenge to secure majorities in parliament in the new political constellation.

The developments of the next few days and weeks will determine how the political situation in Poland continues to unfold. The coming votes will show whether Tusk retains the trust of MPs and whether his reformist course can continue.